Contrarian Perspective – March 11, 2020


Over the past few years I have taken many flights back and forth, between England and Hawaii, always full. Flight legs over recent days – rows of empty seats. Restaurants visited in NYC over the weekend, quiet, none of the usual long lines at doors, staff standing around, nattering between themselves… Waikiki this afternoon, also noticeably quieter, a lot less foot traffic. World is seemingly grinding to a halt, whereas the stock market…. whoa.

Monday’s massive down session, a 2000 point drop on the Dow, pushed the Contragauge down to 113.3 degrees. Deeply oversold yet still not indicative of the capitulation needed for a true bottom. Tuesday’s market bounce recovered the indicator to 137.7 degrees, not far off where it stood at last Friday, ahead of Monday’s collapse.

Next update – Thursday’s P&F report.